Due to the news coming out from Cyprus, as of this writing, Dow Jones futures is down 150 points, S&P futures down 23 points and NASDAQ 100 down 38 points.
Therefore, tomorrow markets will open down big.
Dow Jones support is at 14,250-14,215, S&P support at 1530 and NASDAQ 100 support at 2735.
There is a possibility that markets will form low sometime on Tuesday and then start recovering.
On Friday, March 15th, AAPL broke some serious resistance. Now it is facing resistance at $445 and after $445the resistance is at $475.00
If it breaks $475 then the target for AAPL will be $595.00. In case it fails and reverses to the downside then it can drop to $390 and to the extreme $250.
So on one hand AAPL could run to $595 and on the other hand if it fails it can drop to $390 and all the way to $250. Only time will tell.
S&P closed at 1416 on Friday – November 30th. On November 26th-27th it did face pullback but then reversed upward. And now it looks like that S&P is headed towards 1525. This target was mentioned in my earlier posts before we saw the recent correction.
S&P will not head for 1525 in a straight line. First it needs to cross 1435-1440 level and it looks like after hitting this range S&P will pullback for a week towards 1400-1402 level. Then rise upward again towards 1467-1472 level. During the process of pullback S&P should not break 1390-1380 level.
Nasdaq 100 closed at 2678 on Friday. On its way up it is facing resistance near 2730-2740 range and any break of this range will take it to 2800. On any pullback process which could happen after hitting 2740 it should not go down below 2635. Later after settling above 2800, Nasdaq 100 is eventually headed for 2990 target. This target has been mentioned in earlier posts.
Dow Jones has to cross 13,200 to continue upward towards 13,700.
S&P 1525, Nasdaq 100 2990 could reach during the last two weeks of December rally, but before this rally one more leg down is expected.
AAPL is facing stiff resistance near 594 level. Dojis are forming for last two days. Any break of 594 and then 602 will take it to 625. However it can pullback to 565 also if it fails to cross 594 soon.
AAPL made a high of $705 on September 21st and fell to $623.55 on October 9th. It took twelve sessions to do this.
After hitting the low of $623.55 it rose upward to $645 and then fell down to $629.71 on Friday – October 12th.
When I look at AAPL chart I notice the following:
When it made a low of $623.55 on October 9th it made a ‘small hammer candle which is a ‘bullish’ sign. Next day it gapped up and formed doji. Then it rose upward but sold off again and closed at $628 which is higher than the low ($623.55) of the hammer candle.
On Friday October 12th it formed another doji candle while a making a low of $625.30 which is again higher than the low ($623.55) of the hammer candle. All this telling me that selling in AAPL is getting absorbed by buying. If AAPL violates the low of October 9th ($623.55) it will take out many stops. However this could be a fake out as there is strong support near $609-$610 so it could fall to this range and bounce upward strongly. Smart trader must know where the possible stops could be and where is the next support from where it could bounce so that he/she does not get faked out and regret later.
AAPL reports on October 24th after market close and we could see some fireworks. Recently analysts have revised their ‘earnings’ revisions in AAPL positively.
My long-term target remains the same which is $750-$760. The immediate resistances are $648 and $657.
Chart of AAPL shown below. You can see how many times AAPL moved up after forming hammer and doji candles. Click the chart to see large image.
To read my previous article on AAPL published on Seeking Alpha please visit the following:
Last week markets moved up with brutal force and S&P took out some sheer resistance at 1455. Not only S&P took out 1455 resistance it hit my target of 1465 and closed exactly at 1465.77 (Please read my post dated Sunday, September 9th).
S&P now is in overbought condition and it should not come as a surprise to anyone if S&P pulls back 30 points (1435) from the close of Friday. However, there is a nice support at 1443. The target for S&P is 1525.00
Dow Jones closed at 13,593 and took out the resistance at 13,339. Dow Jones should head towards 13,750. In case it pulls back then there is a nice support right at 13,375 – 13,360 range.
NASDAQ 100 closed at 2855.23 The support for NASDAQ 100 is way below at 2785.
Gold target given was 1765 and it will face resistance at 1765. However, I had also mentioned that if Gold crosses 1770 then would move towards 1845 and eventually to 2000. Gold closed at 1773 and it looks like Gold will further accelerate upward quite fast towards 1845. Since 1845 is resistance therefore, Gold may stall out at 1835, take a breather and then move upward towards 2000.
S&P recently hit the bottom on July 23rd 2012 and since then it has been in uptrend. S&P closed at 1418.16 on Friday, August 17th, 2012 and is 4 points shy from the recent bull market. Those who did not participate in this bull market will start participating and S&P should break 1422 in next few days. There will be lot of stops sitting above 1422 and these will be taken out.
European market also rising since Mario Draghi recent comments. However, the Chinese market is still down. Past quarter earnings were not that great, however, stocks responded positively even on negative news. So this is bullish for the market. Lot of companies did not guide their earnings upward so next quarter if they beat the earnings then this will further fuel the market to the upside. Even home-builder sector has become stronger and stocks in these sectors are rising and seems like will break out. Take a look at LEN and DHI charts for example.
When stock market is not rising strongly and interest rate is low investors invest their funds in dividend yielding blue chip stocks. When interest rate starts rising and the market overall also moving up then the same investors take their money out of these slow moving dividend yielding safe stocks into faster moving stocks of the sectors such as Energy, Financials, Industrials and Technology. Currently, interest rate is inching upward, therefore, dividend yielding stocks are not that attractive which forces investors to invest in the above mentioned sectors which helps in having a broad-based rally.
AAPL has broken out and closed at $648.11. It is headed to my long-term target of $710 which I published on my blog when AAPL was merely trading at $422.
For my recent article on AAPL which was published on Seekingalpha “The AAPL Stock Split And its Effect On The DJIA” please read by clicking the link given below:
Now, if we concentrate on some of the badly beaten stocks of last year then two names come to our mind. SHLD and FSLR. SHLD got butchered and fell from $200 to $25 and now sitting pretty at $59.49 and looks like buyers are interested in it. Also have you seen FSLR recently? This one fell from $320 to $11.50 and now have been rising and sitting at $22.00. So it has appreciated almost 100 percent in a matter of few weeks. There is renewed interest in FSLR and it looks like will rise upward and something worth considering in good returns on the money fast, either via shares or long calls. The point I am making here is that those stocks which were hated most during last two years have started rising. From Home-builders to Sears to FSLR. One can say anything he/she wants to say about economy, unemployment situation but stock market is rising be it FED money or institutions and one cannot deny this fact and must trade according to the trend of the market which is currently up.
From mid-August to late September market in the past usually goes sideways but this year it is different. My target on S&P is 1435-1440 and it could even reach 1465-1470. However, there are two dates which are approaching where the market could pull back. We have to remember that market stalls out when it is rising and least expected. Therefore, as traders/investors we should always be on the lookout for any clue of market top forming in near future.
There is one scenario which could play out this week which is as follows:
S&P takes out 1422 this Monday and heads toward 1430-1435 (that is very close to the target of 1435-1440) and then pulls back to 1390-1396 level and then start rising upward again and moves towards 1445 by Labor day holiday.
NASDAQ 100 is also very close to making new high beyond 2795, however, it can overshoot this resistance and halt. Will it just stop temporarily and continue to rise or make a south turn we will find out this week.
Watch for the US Home Sales and Jobless claims.
I hope the above helps you in putting on the profitable trades in this coming week.