S&P made a high of 1597 on Thursday, April 11th. On Friday it retreated and closed at 1589. S&P may find itself stuck again in the range of 1595-1610 and then break upwards towards 1625-1630. 1625 target in S&P was mentioned long time back. Dow Jones target of 15,000 was also mentioned way back and it has finally arrived – almost there.
Traders should watch April 25th (Lunar Eclipse), and May 10th (Solar Eclipse) for the clue. Markets have a tendency to reverse its directions during lunar and solar eclipse. The minor support level for S&P is 1565-1567 and very strong support is at 1540 level.
Dow Jones may find itself retreating after hitting 15,000 this week as it is one big round number. It could pullback to 14,635 level and then rise again and attempt to break 15,000. If Dow Jones breaks 15,000 on second attempt then 16,125 is the possibility. On what date these targets will hit only God knows.
Gold dropped big on Friday and closed near 1500. It could find itself going down further towards 1395 and there is a possibility of it dropping to 1250 level.
Last week markets moved up with brutal force and S&P took out some sheer resistance at 1455. Not only S&P took out 1455 resistance it hit my target of 1465 and closed exactly at 1465.77 (Please read my post dated Sunday, September 9th).
S&P now is in overbought condition and it should not come as a surprise to anyone if S&P pulls back 30 points (1435) from the close of Friday. However, there is a nice support at 1443. The target for S&P is 1525.00
Dow Jones closed at 13,593 and took out the resistance at 13,339. Dow Jones should head towards 13,750. In case it pulls back then there is a nice support right at 13,375 – 13,360 range.
NASDAQ 100 closed at 2855.23 The support for NASDAQ 100 is way below at 2785.
Gold target given was 1765 and it will face resistance at 1765. However, I had also mentioned that if Gold crosses 1770 then would move towards 1845 and eventually to 2000. Gold closed at 1773 and it looks like Gold will further accelerate upward quite fast towards 1845. Since 1845 is resistance therefore, Gold may stall out at 1835, take a breather and then move upward towards 2000.
Markets moved up sharply on September 6th and broke resistances. In my September 3rd post I had mentioned along with the chart that $VIX had gone above the Bollinger band but next day fell inside the band. When this happens $VIX continue to come down and market rises upward. This is exactly happened last week. Here is the link for September 3rd post http://financialmarketswizard.com/blog/archives/1966
In my August 26th post I had mentioned that Shanghai Composite index is at double bottom support and it could rise upward. What happened last week was that this index broke support – trapped all bears and then rose sharply upward. Chart of Shanghai Composite ($SSEC) is at the bottom of this post for your review.
On August 26th I had also given the target for S&P to be 1435-1440 range. S&P closed at 1437.92 on Friday September 7th. Now we need to watch S&P carefully for its next move. There are two possible scenarios. Whatever the scenario the market is in uptrend. Here is the link for August 26th post http://financialmarketswizard.com/blog/archives/1930
S&P pulls back towards 1415 (previously this was resistance and mentioned in my blog) and then rise upward again and take out the close of 1437.92 and rise upward towards 1455 in zig-zag fashion. The ultimate target for S&P is 1465. However, S&P could stall at 1455. So trader must watch the behavior of S&P when it is trading between 1455-1465.
S&P continues its upward journey towards 1455 as 1455 is just 17 points away. Once S&P hits 1455 it pulls back to 1440 and then rise again and takes out 1455 and heads towards 1465. At 1465 we could see the correction.
We will find out which scenario will unfold next week. The strong support for S&P is 1396 which is far from 1438 (Friday close of S&P).
My target for S&P is 1525 and it could reach by March of 2013. We need to see where S&P closes by September 30th. If it closes above 1440 then target of 1525 is achievable.
NASDAQ 100 took out the resistance level of 2810-2815 which I had mentioned in my previous blog posting. It closed at 2825. The support levels are 2782 and 2740. The target for NASDAQ 100 is 2990-3000 and this could hit while S&P hitting 1465.
Dow Jones closed at 13,306.64 on Friday and facing resistance of May 1st 2012 for 13,339. The support for Dow Jones is at 13239. Dow Jones has formed Inverse Head and Shoulder Pattern and facing some serious resistance near 13,339. I would watch IBM, CAT and CVX for the move in Dow Jones. There is good news from China regarding CAT so CAT should be moving up. It bottomed at $82 level last week. CVX is facing double top and should be breaking out. IBM facing resistance near $200 and should break it.
I expect markets to rise another three weeks.
In my post of August 26th I had mentioned Gold target of 1735. On Friday September 7th Gold closed at 1737. I had also posted the charts of Gold and Silver. I am posting updated charts of Gold and Silver for you to see. What goes up does not necessarily mean continue to go up. Gold may top out in this range 1750 – 1765 and retrace back towards 1685 – 1670 range, therefore caution is advised now. However, if Gold moves above 1770 then it has very high probability of taking out previous high of 1845 and running towards 2000.
S&P closed at 1406.58 on Friday August 31st. The support below is at 1397 and resistance above is at 1415. S&P must close above 1415 and on weekly basis must hold 1397. That is it must not close below 1397 on any day of the week. If it closes below 1397 then it would fall to 1375 which is very strong support.
The likelihood of major correction in the month of September is less. Above 1415 the next resistance range is 1430-1440.
NASDAQ 100 closed at 2772.24 on Friday and it is the strongest index among the three. It is getting help from AAPL. AAPL closed at 665.24 on Friday after hitting the high of $680.87. AAPL has lot of potential to move up. I, however, would not buy AAPL at current level unless it drops to $617.00. AAPL will help in NASDAQ rise. NASDAQ 100 very strong support at 2740
Dow Jones is facing resistance at 13,207 and support at 12,970.
$VIX – the fear index had gone above its Bollinger Band on Thursday – August 30th but on Friday it closed inside the band. When this happens, it usually keeps coming down and market rises. Will it happen this time? There is a good chance based on probability.
Overall September is also expected to be slow moving upward trend and then starting October we should see year-end rally. ECB meets on September 6th and this date is very crucial for the market.
Gold closed at 1687.6 and is headed for 1730-1735 where it will face stiff resistance. However, if Gold closes above 1754 then it will trigger 1840 target.
$VIX chart shown below with Bollinger Band signaling market to rise in coming days.
The week just passed was one of the slowest week. On my blog on August 19th, I had posted the possibility of one scenario which could play out. I mentioned the following:
“S&P takes out 1422 this Monday and heads toward 1430-1435 (that is very close to the target of 1435-1440) and then pulls back to 1390-1396 level and then start rising upward again and moves towards 1445 by Labor day holiday.”
On Friday August 17th S&P had closed at 1418. On Tuesday August 21st, S&P made intraday high of 1426.88 and then started pulling back. On Friday, August 24th, S&P made a low of 1398 and closed at 1411.13
It is now logical that S&P must take out 1422 again this week and not only take out 1422 but must go above 1426.88 (the high made on August 21st) and close. After conquering 1426.88 then S&P will head towards the target range of 1435 – 1440. It can go as high as 1445 though. There is a bullish sentiment this week due to Jackson Hole meeting on August 30th and then usual buying and selling just before the Labor Day Weekend. Market will be closed on Monday - September 3rd.
NASDAQ 100 resistance is at 2810-2815.
One thing to note is that Chinese Market which has been going down since May of this year is finding double bottom support. This could also be a catalyst for US Market to move up. European markets are also moving up, however, last week they went nowhere just like in USA.
If S&P closes above 1440 and NASDAQ 100 above 2815 by August 31st, then these markets will trigger higher targets for the year end. S&P target would be 1480-1500 and NASDAQ 100 target of 2965. There is a chance, however, that market may see pullback just after Labor day holiday. Historically, during Presidential election year market is bearish from Labor Day holiday to Columbus day. Will this happen during this year’s election?
As we know Gold had been consolidating for last several months and was going nowhere. Last week Gold moved up aggressively. From seasonality point of view Gold starts to move from September, with a dip in October and then continue rising upward till late Spring. Then summer doldrums kicks in for Gold. The immediate target for Gold is 1685-1690. If Gold closes above 1690 then it will head towards 1735 which is a major resistance. Silver resistances levels are $31.60, $32.80 and $34.25. The support for Silver is at $29.50. Charts for Gold, Silver and Gold Bugs Index ($HUI) are shown below:
To understand Gold Bugs Index $HUI please visit the following link on the blog: http://financialmarketswizard.com/blog/archives/1951
While gold was making its up move furiously I had pointed out that it has resistance at 1642.
Please read my previous post here. It is mentioned in the last para.
Gold exactly hit 1642 and reversed to the downside. As of this writing it is trading at 1569.00 a whopping drop of 73 points from the high.
Now we need to watch 1554 support and then 1522. If 1522 is broken then Gold could hit 1500.
Chart of Gold is shown below:
June 8th, 2012 – 9 AM Pacific Time. Gold hit 1556 and bounced upward. Support given was 1554. Now Gold has resistance at 1594 and it may fail there and come back down.