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S&P closed at 1402, three points below the number (1405) mentioned in my last post.
Watching the futures market at this moment and it looks like Futures bottomed.
Dow Jones (YM) is trading at 12,819, made a low of 12,742.
S&P futures (ES) hit 1383 and trading at 1390. It is possible though that S&P future could hit 1375 and rebound upward.
If futures continue upward through out the night and market wants to continue upward then 1402 is the low for S&P cash.
However, S&P does have the potential to drop below 1390 which is 1386-1387 and then rebound towards 1433.
It is hard to do the technical analysis when market is waiting for the news from Washington on Fiscal Cliff.
In my last Sunday (December 16th) post I had mentioned that S&P could pullback to 1390. On the night of December 20th (early morning of December 21st) as we know futures plunged and S&P future hit low of 1391.25 and bounced upward aggressively and closed at 1426. As of this writing S&P futures are trading at 1418. S&P on Friday closed at 1430.15 after hitting the low of 1422.5
The following are the support levels for the three markets and these support must hold this week:
1. Dow Jones – 13098 – hit low of 13,122 on Friday.
2. S&P – 1412-1405 (hit low of 1422.58 on Friday.
3. Nasdaq 100 – 2635 – hit low of 2639.65 on Friday.
The resistance levels for the three markets are as follows:
1. Dow Jones – 13,224 and then 13,440
2. S&P – 1433, 1438
3. Nasdaq 100 – 2668
It would be a good opportunity to go long in S&P when S&P comes close to 1409-1405 area with a stop below 1405 on close basis. The chances are 50-50 that S&P will come down to 1409-1405 range as the rebound on Friday was a good one via S&P future. And if it does come down to 1409-1405 then market is expected to rally upward once again. And if it does rally then one must keep in mind the above mentioned resistance levels.
In my previous post (December 9th) I had mentioned about 1338 that S&P must cross and close 1338-1340 level. On December 12th, S&P hit 1338 and retreated. For last three sessions S&P is drifting lower. It closed at 1413.58 on Friday, December 14th. Our forefathers of trading had told us to expect 5-8 days of pullback after an important price target has hit. Therefore, it would not come to us as a surprise if we see another 2-3 days of pullback in the market around 1405-1400 area. The max 1390. However I expect 1405 to hold. After this I expect Christmas rally to start which should take S&P to 1453 level by year end. However, only God knows better and no one in this world knows where the market will be by year end. If market wants it could be trading at 1310 level too. Market will do what it has to do.
S&P closed at 1418 on Friday, December 7th. In order for S&P to continue its up move towards the target range of 1429-1435 S&P must close above 1422 by Tuesday December 11th. If S&P closes above 1422 by December 11th then it has high probability of reaching 1435-1440 and this could happen by December 17th. 1435-1440 is severe resistance where the market is expected to pullback or simply just top out.
However, If S&P maintains 1438-1440 level after December 17th then it could reach 1453 by December 21st and this is another level where market could top out.
S&P closed at 1416 on Friday – November 30th. On November 26th-27th it did face pullback but then reversed upward. And now it looks like that S&P is headed towards 1525. This target was mentioned in my earlier posts before we saw the recent correction.
S&P will not head for 1525 in a straight line. First it needs to cross 1435-1440 level and it looks like after hitting this range S&P will pullback for a week towards 1400-1402 level. Then rise upward again towards 1467-1472 level. During the process of pullback S&P should not break 1390-1380 level.
Nasdaq 100 closed at 2678 on Friday. On its way up it is facing resistance near 2730-2740 range and any break of this range will take it to 2800. On any pullback process which could happen after hitting 2740 it should not go down below 2635. Later after settling above 2800, Nasdaq 100 is eventually headed for 2990 target. This target has been mentioned in earlier posts.
Dow Jones has to cross 13,200 to continue upward towards 13,700.
S&P 1525, Nasdaq 100 2990 could reach during the last two weeks of December rally, but before this rally one more leg down is expected.
AAPL is facing stiff resistance near 594 level. Dojis are forming for last two days. Any break of 594 and then 602 will take it to 625. However it can pullback to 565 also if it fails to cross 594 soon.
Markets indeed had put on the bottom on Friday November 16th and has continuously moved upward. S&P not only broke 1375 but it crossed 1405-1407 areas and closed at 1409 last Friday. It looks like it can reach 1430 area soon where it will meet heavy resistance. From the time point of view it could be November 26th-27th. By this period Dow Jones could reach 13,300 area. NASDAQ 100 is facing resistance at 2700-2735 zone.
Historically the days before Thanksgiving and after market rallies.
Last Friday Dow Jones hit the low of 12,471 and closed at 12,588. NASDAQ 100 hit the low of 2494 and closed at 2534.
S&P hit the low of 1343 and closed at 1359.88. The figure of 1359 was mentioned in the last week post that S&P should not close below 1359-1357. So it did not as it went to 1343 but rose upward and closed at 1359.
Looking at Dow Jones and NASDAQ 100 it seems market has put on the bottom on Friday November 16th. However, in the market analysis there is always an ‘if’ and ‘but’. So the ‘but’ here is that even though it looks like the market has put on the bottom there is a probability that S&P will not hold 1359 and even 1343. Rather, S&P could rise to 1370-1375 and then roll down for one more leg down. This down move could take S&P to 1310-1315. This scenario could happen by November 23rd. By the way, on its way down towards 1310-1315 there is a probability that S&P could stop at 1329 as 1329 is the price point where important trend angle is.
Historically stock markets start rising after election. This time the rally did not come. May be now they are waiting for Santa to arrive little early.
Anyone who trades stock know that 1370 is the support for S&P. S&P hit the low of 1373 on Friday and closed at 1379.85. Now what is next? There is a solar eclipse on November 13th and market could start moving up as it has done before.
Markets or stocks have a tendency to give fake signal. What I mean with respect to S&P is that S&P could fall for another two days only to find support at 1357-1359 (based on drawing the angle line) and then start rising upward for the year-end rally.
The resistance above is 1415-1422 and then there are more resistances to the upside. In case S&P drops to 1357-1359 then the resistance for S&P would be 1370-1383.
We will know how it goes this week. If there is an important update during the week I would send a short note.