Markets Update

By September 9, 2012 Market Analysis No Comments

Markets moved up sharply on September 6th and broke resistances. In my September 3rd post I had mentioned along with the chart that $VIX had gone above the Bollinger band but next day fell inside the band. When this happens $VIX continue to come down and market rises upward. This is exactly happened last week. Here is the link for September 3rd post

In my August 26th post I had mentioned that Shanghai Composite index is at double bottom support and it could rise upward. What happened last week was that this index broke support – trapped all bears and then rose sharply upward. Chart of Shanghai Composite ($SSEC) is at the bottom of this post for your review.

On August 26th I had also given the target for S&P to be 1435-1440 range. S&P closed at 1437.92 on Friday September 7th. Now we need to watch S&P carefully for its next move. There are two possible scenarios. Whatever the scenario the market is in uptrend. Here is the link for August 26th post

First Scenario

S&P pulls back towards 1415 (previously this was resistance and mentioned in my blog) and then rise upward again and take out the close of 1437.92 and rise upward towards 1455 in zig-zag fashion. The ultimate target for S&P is 1465. However, S&P could stall at 1455. So trader must watch the behavior of S&P when it is trading between 1455-1465.

Second Scenario

S&P continues its upward journey towards 1455 as 1455 is just 17 points away. Once S&P hits 1455 it pulls back to 1440 and then rise again and takes out 1455 and heads towards 1465. At 1465 we could see the correction.

We will find out which scenario will unfold next week. The strong support for S&P is 1396 which is far from 1438 (Friday close of S&P).

My target for S&P is 1525 and it could reach by March of 2013. We need to see where S&P closes by September 30th. If it closes above 1440 then target of 1525 is achievable.

NASDAQ 100 took out the resistance level of 2810-2815 which I had mentioned in my previous blog posting. It closed at 2825. The support levels are 2782 and 2740. The target for NASDAQ 100 is 2990-3000 and this could hit while S&P hitting 1465.

Dow Jones closed at 13,306.64 on Friday and facing resistance of May 1st 2012 for 13,339. The support for Dow Jones is at 13239.  Dow Jones has formed Inverse Head and Shoulder Pattern and facing some serious resistance near 13,339. I would watch IBM, CAT and CVX for the move in Dow Jones. There is good news from China regarding CAT so CAT should be moving up. It bottomed at $82 level last week. CVX is facing double top and should be breaking out. IBM facing resistance near $200 and should break it.

I expect markets to rise another three weeks.

In my post of August 26th I had mentioned Gold target of 1735. On Friday September 7th Gold closed at 1737. I had also posted the charts of Gold and Silver. I am posting updated charts of Gold and Silver for you to see. What goes up does not necessarily mean continue to go up. Gold may top out in this range 1750 – 1765 and retrace back towards 1685 – 1670 range, therefore caution is advised now. However, if Gold moves above 1770 then it has very high probability of taking out previous high of 1845 and running towards 2000.

$SSEC Chart

$INDU Chart - Inverse Head & Shoulder

$Silver Chart

Gold Chart


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